IN PROGRESS
Does the Undercut Pay Off?
Pit-Stop Strategy & Race Performance in Formula 1
An investigation into whether the "undercut" — pitting before a rival to gain track position through fresher tyres — causally improves race outcomes, or whether the apparent benefit is confounded by pace, tyre state, and track position at the time of the stop.
- Causal Inference
- Bayesian Analysis
- Statistical Modeling
- Machine Learning
Research Pipeline
- 01Research QuestionDoes the undercut causally improve race position?
- 02DataLap-level Formula 1 race and pit-stop data
- 03Causal DesignIdentifying and adjusting for confounders
- 04Statistical AnalysisEstimating the strategy's effect
- 05Machine LearningSupporting predictive analysis
- 06ResultsEvidence-based read on undercut effectiveness
- Framed as a causal inference problem rather than a pure prediction problem — the goal is to estimate an effect, not just fit a model.
- Also featured on the Projects page as an applied case study.